Oversold…

Steady Wealth Podcast

Oversold...

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"It's just not that easy to make money in the markets; it requires discipline."

These words resonate with self-directed investors who often find themselves underperforming the indices.

The new Steady Wealth Podcast website, available at www.steadywealthpodcast.com, delves into the heart of this issue (and others)

In the latest episode of The Steady Wealth Podcast, host Serge Berger shares insights fresh from the Orlando summit.

He reflects on the engaging discussions held with clients about market trends, focusing specifically on the current state of equities.

Berger delves into the potential for a near-term balance in the market, emphasizing the likelihood of a temporary bounce but expressing doubts about a sustained year-end rally due to economic factors like taxation and prevailing market conditions.

He highlights a busy week ahead, detailing the significance of economic data, the Federal Reserve meeting, and upcoming job reports.

Berger illustrates oversold market conditions, pointing to specific stocks exhibiting extreme downward momentum while discussing potential surprises in the remaining months of the year.

He forecasts the possibility of equities lacking a traditional year-end rally, speculates on a potential bear market rally in bonds, and considers the impact of a Bitcoin ETF approval on the market.

Emphasizing caution due to the increased likelihood of a market downturn, Berger delivers a nuanced perspective, acknowledging the potential for surprises in a year marked by unique economic conditions.

He also teases upcoming episodes with guest appearances, inviting listeners to join future discussions on the podcast.

Is this conversation helpful so far?

What Are The Odds of A Stock Market Crash in Q4?

Steady Wealth Podcast

What Are The Odds of A Stock Market Crash in Q4?

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It's just not that easy to make money in the markets; it requires discipline." 

These words resonate with self-directed investors who often find themselves underperforming the indices.

In the latest episode of The Steady Wealth Podcast hosted by Serge Berger, listeners are presented with a critical question:

"Could the stock market crash in the fourth quarter of 2023?"

Serge Berger begins by exploring the typical seasonal tailwinds that influence equities and risk assets in Q4, emphasizing the positive aspects and not predicting doom and gloom.

Berger delves into the seasonality of fund managers chasing high-performing assets to mark up their books at year-end.

He uses historical data to support the idea that the fourth quarter tends to be influenced by these factors.

However, he's cautious not to oversimplify and underscores that seasonality is not a guarantee, emphasizing the importance of considering the broader economic environment.

Berger then delves into key economic indicators, such as the yield curve and the Federal Reserve's rate policies.

He explains how a re-steepening yield curve can signal potential trouble for the equity market and why shifts in the Fed's stance matter.

Moreover, he points out that the slowing economy and geopolitical tensions are creating an increasingly complex situation.

The podcast addresses the performance of various sectors and tech stocks, highlighting the challenges and the weight of evidence suggesting a challenging time for the stock market.

Berger analyzes the performance of major stocks and indices over different time frames, revealing that the weight of evidence leans toward a more difficult period for investors in the fourth quarter.

While maintaining an open mind, the episode encourages listeners to consider the possibility of a market decline, emphasizing the importance of making informed decisions in a rapidly evolving economic landscape.

The Dark Side Of Financial Information

Steady Wealth Podcast

The Dark Side Of Financial Information

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It's just not that easy to make money in the markets; it requires discipline." 

These words resonate with self-directed investors who often find themselves underperforming the indices.

In the latest episode of The Steady Wealth Podcast, hosted by Serge Berger, listeners are guided on how to become more successful and open-minded traders and investors.

Serge, head trader and investment strategist at thesteadytrader.com, emphasizes the importance of conducting thorough due diligence on financial information sources.

He addresses concerns about market research from mainstream media and underscores the significance of differentiating between investment advice and research.

Serge delves into challenges such as high fees, churning, lack of diversification, and misalignment with client goals.

He urges listeners to choose reputable, transparent advisors and align their financial strategies accordingly for a secure future.

Tune in for insightful guidance and valuable tips on navigating the financial landscape.

Is the Golden Age for Stocks Over?

Steady Wealth Podcast

Is the Golden Age for Stocks Over?

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It's just not that easy to make money in the markets; it requires discipline." 

These words resonate with self-directed investors who often find themselves underperforming the indices.

In the latest episode of The Steady Wealth Podcast hosted by Serge Berger, titled "Is the Golden Age for Stocks Over?", Berger delves into the critical state of the economy and the implications for the stock market.

He reflects on the Q4 playbook for 2023, discussing the contrasting forces of economic slowdown and seasonal stock market potential.

Berger emphasizes the importance of understanding the evolving economic cycle and the impact of interest rates on investment strategies.

He explores the shift in investor behavior and the potential movement towards bonds, challenging the notion of a continued golden age for stocks.

Berger highlights the need for careful, tactical investment approaches in the current economic landscape.

Tune in for insightful analysis and strategic financial considerations.

Our Q4 2023 Stock Market Playbook!

Steady Wealth Podcast

Our Q4 2023 Stock Market Playbook!

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00:00 /

It's just not that easy to make money in the markets; it requires discipline." 

These words resonate with self-directed investors who often find themselves underperforming the indices.

In the latest episode of The Steady Wealth Podcast hosted by Serge Berger, we delve into the intricacies of the fourth quarter of 2023.

Berger, an experienced trader and investor, provides insights on market dynamics and potential strategies during this critical period.

He emphasizes the need for flexibility and risk management in navigating the evolving markets, acknowledging the uncertain economic cycle and the juxtaposition of bullish seasonality with late-cycle economic indicators.

Berger outlines a portfolio structure, allocating strategically to hedge risk and capitalize on potential opportunities, offering a roadmap for investors in this dynamic market landscape.

Have We Seen The 2023 Stock Market Highs?

Steady Wealth Podcast

Have We Seen The 2023 Stock Market Highs?

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It's just not that easy to make money in the markets; it requires discipline." 

These words resonate with self-directed investors who often find themselves underperforming the indices.

In the latest episode of the Steady Wealth Podcast, hosts Serge Berger and Brian discuss the current state of the market and potential outcomes for the fourth quarter.

With economic data showing a mix of pessimism and cautious optimism, they anticipate a sideways drift for equities with some volatility.

The conversation delves into factors influencing the market, including interest rates and their impact on stock prices. Bond yields, especially the 10-year, are at historical highs, causing concern.

Brian shares his perspective on potential interest rate movements and their effects on the economy and stocks.

They also touch on the recent Federal Reserve meeting, where a hawkish stance was adopted, affecting market sentiment.

Serge and Brian discuss the correlation between interest rates and equity performance, highlighting the potential headwinds higher rates pose for the stock market.

Looking at shorter-term projections, they anticipate fluctuating markets, potentially influenced by economic data and central bank actions.

They note the possibility of a bullish rally if exceptionally positive economic news is released.

However, overall, they expect a flat trajectory for equities in the coming months.

Amidst all the financial discussions, the hosts share a lighthearted moment discussing airline experiences and turbulence analogies to market conditions.

The episode provides valuable insights into the complex interplay of economic indicators and investor psychology, guiding listeners through the potential market landscape in the near future.

Why the 6040 Portfolio is Back!

Steady Wealth Podcast

Why the 6040 Portfolio is Back!

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00:00 /

It's just not that easy to make money in the markets; it requires discipline." 

These words resonate with self-directed investors who often find themselves underperforming the indices.

The new Steady Wealth Podcast website, available at www.steadywealthpodcast.com, delves into the heart of this issue (and others), addressing the reasons behind individual investor underperformance.
In the latest episode of the Steady Wealth Podcast, host Serge Berger delves into the much-discussed topic of whether the traditional 60-40 investment portfolio is still effective.

The 60-40 portfolio traditionally allocates 60% to stocks and 40% to bonds, aiming to balance risk and returns.

Serge explores how people have been quick to label this approach as obsolete, emphasizing the recent shift in bond yields and its impact on the portfolio's performance.

He discusses the advantages and disadvantages of the 60-40 strategy, highlighting the importance of considering an individual's financial goals, risk tolerance, and age when determining the appropriate portfolio mix.

Furthermore, Serge proposes potential modifications to enhance the 60-40 portfolio, including diversification through commodities and a more dynamic approach to asset allocation.

He advocates for staying informed and adaptable in managing investments to navigate changing financial landscapes effectively.

For more insights and personalized advice, Serge suggests engaging with investment advisors and leveraging research resources.

Tune in to gain a comprehensive understanding of the 60-40 portfolio's relevance and how to optimize it for today's market conditions.

The Case For Energy Stocks

Steady Wealth Podcast

The Case For Energy Stocks

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00:00 /

It's just not that easy to make money in the markets; it requires discipline." These words resonate with self-directed investors who often find themselves underperforming the indices.

The new Steady Wealth Podcast website, available at www.steadywealthpodcast.com, delves into the heart of this issue (and others), addressing the reasons behind individual investor underperformance.

Welcome to this week's episode of The Steady Wealth Podcast with your host, Serge Berger.

Serge touches on various facets, from inflation and diversification strategies to the evolving demand for energy.

Serge emphasizes the importance of a diversified investment portfolio, debunking the myth of chasing the latest investment trends. Instead, he advocates for a well-rounded approach, explaining why energy stocks should be on investors' radars.

Drawing on data and charts, Serge illustrates the recent performance of energy stocks, showing their impressive resilience in the face of inflation and market fluctuations. He discusses how energy stocks have emerged as a reliable hedge, outperforming bonds and even rivaling other sectors.

Serge delves into the dynamics of the energy sector, highlighting the increasing demand for energy resources worldwide. He explores factors like population growth and rising living standards, which continue to drive the need for energy, making it a promising long-term investment.

Additionally, Serge presents a nuanced perspective on inflation and deflation, acknowledging the ongoing debate. He discusses how shifting spending patterns among baby boomers could impact the overall inflation landscape and its implications for energy stocks.

In conclusion, Serge Berger provides insightful analysis and recommends an overweight allocation to energy stocks, positioning them as a viable hedge against inflation. Tune in to this episode for a comprehensive understanding of the energy sector's significance in today's ever-evolving financial markets.

Surprise September Stock Market Rally!?

Steady Wealth Podcast

Surprise September Stock Market Rally!?

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00:00 /

It's just not that easy to make money in the markets; it requires discipline." These words resonate with self-directed investors who often find themselves underperforming the indices.

The new Steady Wealth Podcast website, available at www.steadywealthpodcast.com, delves into the heart of this issue (and others), addressing the reasons behind individual investor underperformance.

Welcome to this week's episode of The Steady Wealth Podcast with your host, Serge Berger.

As we transition from the summer months into the more intriguing part of the market, September through December, Serge takes a deep dive into the seasonality and historical data surrounding the US equity market in September.

While September is often seen as a weak month statistically, Serge discusses the complexity of relying solely on seasonality as a predictive factor and explores the dynamics of market sentiment.

He also highlights the impact of algorithmic trading and economic data on market behavior.

Tune in to gain valuable insights into potential market trends for the month and how to approach your portfolio during this transitional period.

The Psychology of Market Timing

Steady Wealth Podcast

The Psychology of Market Timing

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00:00 /

"It's just not that easy to make money in the markets; it requires discipline."

These words resonate with self-directed investors who often find themselves underperforming the indices.

The new Steady Wealth Podcast website, available at www.steadywealthpodcast.com, delves into the heart of this issue (and others), addressing the reasons behind individual investor underperformance.

In the latest episode of The Steady Wealth Podcast, hosted by Serge Berger, the focus is on the psychology of market timing—a crucial aspect for successful trading and investing. Berger begins by discussing the challenge of making tactical moves in the market and emphasizes the need to understand market psychology.

He delves into how fear and greed impact decisions, leading investors to buy and sell at unfavorable moments.

With his signature insights, Berger highlights the difficulties of market timing, using charts to show that both self-directed and professional investors often struggle to outperform indices.

He advocates for diversification and advises listeners to approach market timing with caution, keeping emotions and arbitrary stops in check.

The episode ends with a reminder that human psychology plays a significant role in trading and investing decisions.