"It's just not that easy to make money in the markets; it requires discipline."
These words resonate with self-directed investors who often find themselves underperforming the indices.
The new Steady Wealth Podcast website, available at www.steadywealthpodcast.com, delves into the heart of this issue (and others)
Welcome back to another episode of The Steady Wealth Podcast with Serge Berger from thesteadytrader.com.
In this fireside chat following the holiday season, Serge delves into the leading indicator qualities of Bitcoin.
Prefacing it as a data-driven analysis, not a pro-Bitcoin endorsement, he explores Bitcoin's role as a risk-on or risk-off asset and its correlation with market sentiment.
Serge uncovers Bitcoin's potential as an inflation hedge, demonstrating its foresight in reacting to inflationary pressures.
Through a detailed chart analysis, he illustrates how Bitcoin has served as a leading indicator for equities, offering insights into market trends and dynamics.
Don't miss this insightful exploration into the evolving relationship between Bitcoin and broader financial markets.
"It's just not that easy to make money in the markets; it requires discipline." These words resonate with self-directed investors who often find themselves underperforming the indices.
www.thesteadytrader.com
The new Steady Wealth Podcast website, available at www.steadywealthpodcast.com, delves into the heart of this issue (and others)
In the latest episode of The Steady Wealth Podcast, hosted by Serge Berger, listeners are taken on a deep dive into the current economic landscape as of late November 2023.
Berger reflects on the year's macroeconomic uncertainties, including the impact of AI on markets and the unique dynamics of long-duration equities.
The central question posed is whether stocks or the bond market accurately reflect the economic situation.
Berger uses charts and analysis to explore potential scenarios, providing insights into the implications for portfolios.
With a focus on interest rates, economic cyclicality, and the delicate balance between stocks and bonds, this episode offers valuable perspectives for navigating the evolving financial landscape.
Portfolio Moves in a 'Higher for Longer' Environment
/
"It's just not that easy to make money in the markets; it requires discipline." These words resonate with self-directed investors who often find themselves underperforming the indices.
The new Steady Wealth Podcast website, available at www.steadywealthpodcast.com, delves into the heart of this issue (and others)
Welcome to the latest episode of The Steady Wealth Podcast with your host, Serge Berger. In this episode, Serge dives into the potential portfolio consequences of interest rates remaining notably higher. With just a few weeks left in 2023, Serge explores the impact of the current 4.5% to 5% yield range in the US Treasury market on both portfolios and trading strategies.
He challenges the common narrative that higher interest rates will lead to widespread destruction, emphasizing that it's not just about the absolute level of rates but also the rate of change. Drawing on historical data, Serge highlights that the 4 to 5 percent range has been more of a norm than an exception, suggesting a shift from ultra-low rates to a more normalized range.
Serge shares valuable insights into the trading perspective, discussing how higher rates imply a higher discount rate for risk assets, potentially resulting in lower returns for equities. He emphasizes mean reversion strategies in a higher interest rate environment, suggesting that oscillators like MACD or stochastic indicators may be more effective.
The episode covers various asset classes, from bonds to real estate, high dividend stocks, and commodities. Serge explores how each may be influenced by elevated interest rates, offering a nuanced view of their potential performance. Additionally, he underscores the attractiveness of cash and short-term instruments, challenging the notion that "cash is trash" and highlighting their potential benefits in a rising rate environment.
As the podcast concludes, Serge encourages listeners to shift away from chart-chasing and consider mean reversion strategies for 2024, anticipating continued challenges and opportunities in the market. Whether you're an investor or trader, this episode provides valuable insights for navigating the complex landscape shaped by interest rate dynamics. Tune in and stay ahead of the curve in the ever-evolving financial markets.
"It's just not that easy to make money in the markets; it requires discipline." These words resonate with self-directed investors who often find themselves underperforming the indices. The new Steady Wealth Podcast website, available at www.steadywealthpodcast.com, delves into the heart of this issue (and others)
In the latest episode of The Steady Wealth Podcast, hosted by Serge Berger, listeners are treated to a deep dive into the often overlooked aspect of successful investing—avoidance of common mistakes.
Serge emphasizes the significance of risk management and shares a checklist of "easy wins" to prevent portfolio blowups.
Drawing from personal and client experiences, he covers topics ranging from avoiding overtrading and overleveraging to understanding the details of contracts and staying diversified.
The episode serves as a practical guide, urging investors to prioritize risk management over constant profit maximization. Berger's insights offer a refreshing perspective for those looking to enhance their investment strategies.
"It's just not that easy to make money in the markets; it requires discipline."
These words resonate with self-directed investors who often find themselves underperforming the indices.
The new Steady Wealth Podcast website, available at www.steadywealthpodcast.com, delves into the heart of this issue (and others)
In the latest episode of The Steady Wealth Podcast with Serge Berger, the discussion delves into the recent surge in risk assets and poses a crucial question: is this the inception of a year-end rally or have we already witnessed a significant portion of the anticipated upside? Berger, the host of the podcast and founder of thesteadytrader.com, begins by outlining the market's oversold conditions, signaling a potential bounce in various risk assets from U.S. equities to European equities and beyond.
Highlighting the technical basis for the oversold bounce, Berger links it to broader 4th quarter seasonality. He emphasizes the significance of understanding economic data for making informed investment decisions and encourages individuals engaging in self-directed investing to have informed conversations with their advisors.
Berger dissects the market's behavior from the previous week, observing a "risk-on" sentiment, where interest rate-sensitive assets surged while energy markets underperformed. He analyzes the correlations between equities, the dollar, oil, and yields, noting a divergence in their movements, especially with equities rising as other asset classes declined. He connects these market movements to the economic cycle and a gradually slowing economy.
Despite earlier misjudgments about the timing of the economic slowdown, Berger asserts the directional accuracy of his analysis. He elaborates on the reasons behind the market's reaction to weaker economic indicators and how it impacts different asset classes.
The podcast delves into the intricacies of market correlations and algorithms, emphasizing the importance of understanding the "why" behind market movements for effective risk management. Berger elucidates the recent market rally in response to the weakened ISM number and how this triggered varied reactions across asset classes.
Cautioning about potential challenges ahead, Berger examines technical indicators such as moving averages and overbought readings in the S&P 500 and German DAX. He scrutinizes Apple's performance and questions its growth trajectory. Berger outlines potential investment strategies, suggesting allocations to AGG (the aggregate bond ETF) and short-term Treasury bills, while advocating for a balanced approach to equity exposure and protective strategies through put options.
The podcast episode provides a comprehensive analysis of current market conditions, offering insights into potential investment strategies while emphasizing the importance of understanding economic cycles and correlations. It also stresses the significance of prudent risk management amidst uncertain market dynamics. Berger concludes by inviting listeners to explore more content on The Steady Wealth Podcast and encourages sharing or recommending potential guests for future episodes.
"It's just not that easy to make money in the markets; it requires discipline."
These words resonate with self-directed investors who often find themselves underperforming the indices.
The new Steady Wealth Podcast website, available at www.steadywealthpodcast.com, delves into the heart of this issue (and others)
In the latest episode of The Steady Wealth Podcast, host Serge Berger shares insights fresh from the Orlando summit.
He reflects on the engaging discussions held with clients about market trends, focusing specifically on the current state of equities.
Berger delves into the potential for a near-term balance in the market, emphasizing the likelihood of a temporary bounce but expressing doubts about a sustained year-end rally due to economic factors like taxation and prevailing market conditions.
He highlights a busy week ahead, detailing the significance of economic data, the Federal Reserve meeting, and upcoming job reports.
Berger illustrates oversold market conditions, pointing to specific stocks exhibiting extreme downward momentum while discussing potential surprises in the remaining months of the year.
He forecasts the possibility of equities lacking a traditional year-end rally, speculates on a potential bear market rally in bonds, and considers the impact of a Bitcoin ETF approval on the market.
Emphasizing caution due to the increased likelihood of a market downturn, Berger delivers a nuanced perspective, acknowledging the potential for surprises in a year marked by unique economic conditions.
He also teases upcoming episodes with guest appearances, inviting listeners to join future discussions on the podcast.
It's just not that easy to make money in the markets; it requires discipline."
These words resonate with self-directed investors who often find themselves underperforming the indices.
In the latest episode of The Steady Wealth Podcast hosted by Serge Berger, listeners are presented with a critical question:
"Could the stock market crash in the fourth quarter of 2023?"
Serge Berger begins by exploring the typical seasonal tailwinds that influence equities and risk assets in Q4, emphasizing the positive aspects and not predicting doom and gloom.
Berger delves into the seasonality of fund managers chasing high-performing assets to mark up their books at year-end.
He uses historical data to support the idea that the fourth quarter tends to be influenced by these factors.
However, he's cautious not to oversimplify and underscores that seasonality is not a guarantee, emphasizing the importance of considering the broader economic environment.
Berger then delves into key economic indicators, such as the yield curve and the Federal Reserve's rate policies.
He explains how a re-steepening yield curve can signal potential trouble for the equity market and why shifts in the Fed's stance matter.
Moreover, he points out that the slowing economy and geopolitical tensions are creating an increasingly complex situation.
The podcast addresses the performance of various sectors and tech stocks, highlighting the challenges and the weight of evidence suggesting a challenging time for the stock market.
Berger analyzes the performance of major stocks and indices over different time frames, revealing that the weight of evidence leans toward a more difficult period for investors in the fourth quarter.
While maintaining an open mind, the episode encourages listeners to consider the possibility of a market decline, emphasizing the importance of making informed decisions in a rapidly evolving economic landscape.
It's just not that easy to make money in the markets; it requires discipline."
These words resonate with self-directed investors who often find themselves underperforming the indices.
In the latest episode of The Steady Wealth Podcast, hosted by Serge Berger, listeners are guided on how to become more successful and open-minded traders and investors.
Serge, head trader and investment strategist at thesteadytrader.com, emphasizes the importance of conducting thorough due diligence on financial information sources.
He addresses concerns about market research from mainstream media and underscores the significance of differentiating between investment advice and research.
Serge delves into challenges such as high fees, churning, lack of diversification, and misalignment with client goals.
He urges listeners to choose reputable, transparent advisors and align their financial strategies accordingly for a secure future.
Tune in for insightful guidance and valuable tips on navigating the financial landscape.
It's just not that easy to make money in the markets; it requires discipline."
These words resonate with self-directed investors who often find themselves underperforming the indices.
In the latest episode of The Steady Wealth Podcast hosted by Serge Berger, titled "Is the Golden Age for Stocks Over?", Berger delves into the critical state of the economy and the implications for the stock market.
He reflects on the Q4 playbook for 2023, discussing the contrasting forces of economic slowdown and seasonal stock market potential.
Berger emphasizes the importance of understanding the evolving economic cycle and the impact of interest rates on investment strategies.
He explores the shift in investor behavior and the potential movement towards bonds, challenging the notion of a continued golden age for stocks.
Berger highlights the need for careful, tactical investment approaches in the current economic landscape.
Tune in for insightful analysis and strategic financial considerations.
It's just not that easy to make money in the markets; it requires discipline."
These words resonate with self-directed investors who often find themselves underperforming the indices.
In the latest episode of The Steady Wealth Podcast hosted by Serge Berger, we delve into the intricacies of the fourth quarter of 2023.
Berger, an experienced trader and investor, provides insights on market dynamics and potential strategies during this critical period.
He emphasizes the need for flexibility and risk management in navigating the evolving markets, acknowledging the uncertain economic cycle and the juxtaposition of bullish seasonality with late-cycle economic indicators.
Berger outlines a portfolio structure, allocating strategically to hedge risk and capitalize on potential opportunities, offering a roadmap for investors in this dynamic market landscape.
