Common Mistakes Self-Directed Investors Make with Kate Stalter

Steady Wealth Podcast

Common Mistakes Self-Directed Investors Make with Kate Stalter

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Getting set up for retirement is important to a lot of people, and a financial portfolio is often the way that is done. Today, Serge is joined by special guest, Kate Stalter, to discuss the common mistakes people make with their portfolios. Kate got her start in the financial industry working for Bill O’Neil at the Investor’s Business Daily. She reached a lot of people through speaking engagements with IBD, but knew she wanted to work closer, one-on-one, with people. She accomplished that by getting into the registered investment advisors business. While she’s witnessed a lot of success stories, she’s also seen a lot of common, and easy to avoid, mistakes made.

As we come off of a 12 year stretch where it was easy to make money, it’s hard to get people to understand that what worked then won’t work now. So many people have gotten into the habit of trading the flavor of the month, and not sticking to a strategy that was designed for what they wanted to accomplish. Both Kate and Serge have seen it time and time again. Self-directed investors will usually lose money in the long run.

It’s important to be broadly invested, but people usually have a bias toward their own country, their own region, and stocks they are familiar with. Self-directed investors get caught up in breakout stocks like Tesla, Amazon, and Apple.  Most of the time it’s based on the hype created by financial media. Serge and Kate both agree it’s so important to understand that financial media are not your financial advisors, they really are in the entertainment business. They are beholden to their sponsors, not to you. Likewise, subscribing to a financial newsletter is not personalized advice. If you truly want a strategy that is tailored to you, you need a financial advisor.

If you’ve lost money in the stock market, don’t be ashamed. Just like someone who isn’t a dentist wouldn’t pull their own tooth, you are not a stock market expert. Even though the financial media will try to tell you it’s so easy, it’s really not. Experts will know the right questions to ask as an objective third party. If you’re curious what a financial advisor could do for you, head over to Blue Marlin Advisors, and sign up to have your portfolio looked at.

What You’ll Learn:

What it means to be broadly invested.

Why you should separate your emotions from your money.

The overall success rate with constant trading.

What questions a financial advisor might ask you.

Favorite Quote:

“The financial media are not your financial advisors. They really are in the entertainment business.” -Kate Stalter

How to Double Your Portfolio Income

Steady Wealth Podcast

How to Double Your Portfolio Income

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With the current state of the stock market, one might be wondering how you could double, triple, or even quadruple your portfolio income. The answer is with bonds. Bonds might not be as exciting as the stock market, but they’re where earning potential lies in our current market. A lot of people still don’t understand, or maybe just haven’t accepted, the giant shift we’ve had in 2022. That shift directly correlates with the rise in interest rates. We may have seen these interest rates in the past, but we’ve never seen them go up quite this quickly.

While many publicly traded companies have taken big hits, it’s actually easier now to make money in the markets than it has been in a long time. It is very much dependent on people taking action now though. Take a look at your portfolio and notice how heavily it relies on stocks. Now, rebalance your portfolio to include more fixed income or bonds. The easy money policy has come to an end for the time being, but where high interest rates are bad for stocks, they’re good for bonds. Bonds can take down your investment risk by half and increase your earnings by at least double.

If you don’t already have an investment advisor and would like someone to take a free, comprehensive look at your portfolio, visit Blue Marlin Advisors. Let us show you how you can reach a certain target return by investing with less risk than ever before.

What You’ll Learn:

• What the Modern Monetary Theory, or MMT, is.
• How Covid impacted the MMT.
• What we can expect for interest rates over the next few years.
• And much more!

Favorite Quote:

“I’m not speaking against trading, but I have dramatically changed how I trade, and what I trade.” -Serge Berger

New Era in Investing and Trading Where Patience is Key

Steady Wealth Podcast

New Era in Investing and Trading Where Patience is Key

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The old saying, ‘patience is a virtue’, is true in the trading and investing world of today’s markets. In December, Serge received 10-15 inquiries from people getting ready to retire, who wanted to take more charge of their finances and be more involved in the markets. The problem with this is once people get more involved and passionate, they tend to overtrade or jump on the first thing that comes across their desk. Patience is one of those things that has seemingly gone by the wayside as instant gratification has become the norm. Many investors become chart chasers, meaning they look for, and invest in, the latest breakout trends. But, Serge says that era has ended for now. While commodities may see some chart chasing opportunities, in general, chart chasing is over.

Most people have done well for the last 12 years or so, but not because they were geniuses at picking good stocks. It was because the general market went up. We saw historically low, almost 0%, interest rates. Interest rates now are around 5%, making it a much different ball game. In today’s markets, we need to be more focused on macro economics. That doesn’t mean you have to become an economics professor, it just means you have to do a little more research. Investors are going to want to keep a close eye on the dollar index and interest rates, as there is a direct correlation between the dollar going up and equities going down. So again, patience will be key. Don’t fall into the trap of overtrading, as, historically speaking, it’s only worth it to trade during about 20-30 days in any calendar year. Most people trade much more often than that. If all of that sounds like too much for you, you may want to consider getting an investment advisor.

What You’ll Learn:

• What the Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) is.
• What macroeconomics are.
• What the Average True Range is and why it’s important.
• And much more!

Favorite Quote:

“Patience is one of those things that we, as human beings, aren’t very good at.” -Serge Berger

Commodity and Energy Super Cycle

Steady Wealth Podcast

Commodity and Energy Super Cycle

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While conducting an end of year review, Serge came to the conclusion that we’re very clearly in a commodity and energy super cycle.  While the length of a super cycle is usually hindsight, it’s looking like it could be from 5 to 20 years. For a long time, the energy sector wasn’t doing anything, and then between 2020 and 2022 it went up 50%. Energy stocks have gone from 3% of the S&P allocation to 5%, but could easily go up to 8, 9, or even 10%. For perspective, tech stocks make up about 26%, financial about 12%, and industrial about 9%.

With new technology coming on the market, and things like the electric vehicle revolution, the S&P allocation is bound to see some shakeup. As we move away from fossil fuels for example, electric vehicles will use things like copper and graphite.The future demand for these things will steadily increase over the next 5 years. Graphite for example, is forecasted to see a 17x demand. Even coal has seen a large increase. While it’s still a small percentage of all energy, we’re using more coal than ever. Long story short, energy is important to the human race and definitely isn’t going anywhere.

What You’ll Learn:

• The top reasons we’re still very bullish on commodities and energy.
• How trends in the stock market are calculated.
• How the electric vehicle revolution will affect the stock market.
• Why people are giving up commodities as an asset class.

Favorite Quote:

“Energy is such a trending part of the market and shows absolutely zero chance of ending anytime soon.” -Serge Berger

Key Takeaways From 2022

Steady Wealth Podcast

Key Takeaways From 2022

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As we head into 2023, we’re looking back on and discussing the most important takeaways from 2022. To put it simply, 2022 was the first ugly year in terms of returns for a lot of people. When we take into consideration that the average age on Wall Street is 35, and the last bull market was 12-13 years, we know that most young traders have never seen a bear market. The tip of the iceberg that nudged us over into a different era for markets was 2020. Covid hit and we saw a lot of stimulus money going out in 2020 and 2021. This resulted in a big spike in inflation.

The change in market wasn’t solely a result of covid however. A large factor was 10-15 years of way too loose monetary policy. We saw historically low interest rates, but interest rates don’t stay low forever. If we look at the US treasury market, we’ve been in a bull market for 40 years. These long stretches of bull markets led to complacency with many traders. People have become conditioned to buy in the dip, and sentiment takes time to change. The key to investing and trading in 2023 will be lots of research and well thought out moves.

What You’ll Learn:

• The biggest financial takeaways from 2022.
• How Covid did and didn’t affect the market.
• What signs point to things being too good to be true.
• What to expect in 2023.

Favorite Quote:

“We’re going to have to become more researched investors and traders.” -Serge Berger

The Time For Capitulation

Steady Wealth Podcast

The Time For Capitulation

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As the year comes to an end, Serge finds himself asking why investors haven’t capitulated yet. Most people’s portfolios are down, many 20-25%. Usually we’ll see investors lose 30%, and be down an average of 6 months, before they start to panic. Retail investors tend to be more emotional, which unfortunately, causes them to sell at the bottom. To avoid this, we must have perspective. Investors need to have a broad idea of what’s going on in the economy.

On the other hand, many will end up buying at the high. People get so turned off when they sell at the low that they either never get back in the market, or they wait too long. The key is in de-risking before you go too low, and then buying as soon as you notice that initial snapback. To be successful across all types of markets, we must learn how to remain cool when our portfolios are down. One way to gain knowledge that can help you stay a step ahead, is to sign up for market alerts at TheSteadyTrader.com.

What You’ll Learn:

• What it means to capitulate.
• How to avoid selling at the lows.
• How to gain perspective on the market.
• Why not many people have thrown in the towel yet.

Favorite Quote:

“When we don’t have perspective, that is when we tend to make irrational decisions.” -Serge Berger

What Higher Interest Rates Mean For Your Portfolio

Steady Wealth Podcast

What Higher Interest Rates Mean For Your Portfolio

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When it comes to setting your portfolio up in a high interest rate environment, there’s one move you should consider. Fixed income, and more specifically, bonds. We’re all aware that we have a higher environment of inflation, with things getting more expensive at a faster pace. While it will come back down, and already is, we won’t get back to those ultra low rates anytime soon. Bonds hold the power of compound interest and have gone from 1.4% last year to 3.7-4.45% this year.

So, for having almost risk free bonds that yield a lot, most people are dramatically underweight in bonds. Another promising, and easy, option is ETFs. By using some of these strategies, it’s extremely feasible to create portfolios with 6-8% yield with fixed income. People are hesitant because for the last 5-10 years it didn’t make sense to buy bonds with the great interest rates. To discover what we can do for you, let us look over your portfolio free of charge, just visit BlueMarlinAdvisor.com.

What You’ll Learn

• The power of compound interest.
• Why ETFs are a good investment.
• How interest rates could bring some stocks to zero.
• What value ETFs are.

Favorite Quote:

“An allocation into fixed income, almost regardless of age, is highly appropriate.” -Serge Berger

Why Some Investors Are Scared of Investment Advisors`

Steady Wealth Podcast

Why Some Investors Are Scared of Investment Advisors`

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Many people have preconceived notions about investment advisors, or they’ve had bad experiences with them in the past. Today, Serge discusses why many people are opposed to financial advisors, and conversely why they’re a good idea to have. As CIO at Blue Marlin Advisors, Serge has found that once people are better educated, they ultimately find that it makes sense, and don’t know why they didn’t have one before. The main reason people avoid having a financial advisor is that they don’t think they need one, but that’s often the first objection to go with a little more understanding.

As we just closed out a long bull market, a lot of people have gained a false sense of security and think the investment game is easy. Most investors are short sighted however, and don’t know how to put together a well thought out plan. A good, independent investment advisor will help guide you through the whole economic cycle. Many people will get a volatility shock as we get further into a bear market. An investment advisor can’t guarantee you’ll always see returns, sometimes their job will be more about mitigating losses and positioning for future success. At the end of the day, a good, independent investment advisor is an asset that can help you to retire sooner and/or with more money in the bank.

What You’ll Learn:

• The difference between a financial advisor and investment advisor.
• Why bull markets are actually a dangerous place.
• Top misconceptions people have about investment advisors.
• Why it’s important to have an independent investment advisor.

Favorite Quote:

“Bull markets, ironically, are a very dangerous environment for some people.” -Serge Berger

Stocks Are In For A Lost Decade

Steady Wealth Podcast

Stocks Are In For A Lost Decade

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With 2022 coming to an end, a lot of people, especially those with the classic 60/40 portfolio, will be in for a miserable time. Most people aren’t aware of how their portfolio is performing until they open their end of year statement. With equity markets down 20-30% and more, we’re not seeing nearly the same yields as years past. We’re headed for a lost decade with the S&P, and now’s the time to prepare. History does tend to repeat itself, though, so let’s take a look at what we’ve learned from the past.

Lost decades tend to come after an excessive period, which we’ve certainly had. Now we’re seeing low equity returns and high interest rates. While inflation will come down, it won’t get back to those 0% interest rates we once had. De-globalization will also affect markets. So how can we better set ourselves up? There’s a good argument to be made for flipping the classic 60/40 portfolio to a 40/60 model. That would be 40% in equities and 60% in bonds.

What You’ll Learn:

• What a classic 60/40 allocation portfolio is.
• What a lost decade means in the S&P.
• How deglobalization will impact the stock market.
• And much more!

Favorite Quote:

“In order to see where we might be able to go, we have to know where we’ve come from.” -Serge Berger

Why Stocks Could Rally into Year-End

Steady Wealth Podcast

Why Stocks Could Rally into Year-End

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While seasonal patterns shouldn’t be the sole factor in a market analysis, it is definitely worth including. As we enter the 4th quarter, it’s seasonally a very strong period for the market. On today’s episode, we’re going to look at the probability of a year end rally in the equity markets, and the various factors that contribute to this possibility.

Seasonal patterns are a result of investor behavior, and there is plenty of psychology behind this. In today’s macro focused economy, we have to pay close attention to the global market’s interest rates and currencies. Central banks are still in a tightening phase, and this won’t change right away, but we do expect it to slowly change direction.

What You’ll Learn:

• What various factors contribute to a year end rally.
• How midterm and election years affect the market.
• What Serge believes the probability of a year end rally is.
• And much more!

Favorite Quote:

“We are in an environment where the market will front run and price things in, more so than in a simple bear market.” -Serge Berger